Chapter 2: Berkeley's Greenhoue Gas Emissions Estimates
A. WHY CONDUCT A GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY?
Measure G targets an 80 percent greenhouse gas emissions reduction below 2000 levels by the year 2050. To ensure that we stay on course to meet this long-term target, it makes sense to set interim, short-term targets and to track our emissions reduction progress over time by conducting regular, community-wide greenhouse gas emissions inventories.
It helps to think of an inventory as a "snapshot" of our community's emissions for a given year. This "snapshot" is a useful policy tool because it quantifies the main sources of heat-trapping emissions for which our community is responsible. Equipped with this knowledge, we can better target our climate actions to address those actions.
B. INVENTORY METHODOLOGY
The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) conducted Berkeley’s GHG emissions inventory for the year 2005. ICLEI provides the accepted community-level inventory methodology for over 700 local governments throughout the world. Inventories of Berkeley’s 1990 and 2000 emissions were conducted by City staff using ICLEI’s inventory methodology and emissions analysis software tool.
The inventory reflects the emissions that result from vehicles driven and electricity and natural gas consumed within Berkeley city limits. While there are important limitations in the inventory methodology, it is sophisticated a sophisticated and very useful tool.
C. BERKELEY’S GHG EMISSIONS
Berkeley's community-wide greenhouse gas emissions totaled 634,798 tons in 2005. This is roughly the equivalent amount of emissions that result from 106,000 sedans traveling 12,000 miles per year.
Berkeley GHG Emissions by Sector (2005)
Residential = 168,209 tons (26% of total)
Commercial = 173,882 tons (27% of total)
Transportation = 292,707 (47% of total)
Berkeley GHG Emissions by Energy Source (2005)
Electricity = 112,571 tons (18% of total)
Natural Gas = 229,520 tons (36% of total)
Diesel Fuel = 106,385 (17% of total)
Gasoline = 186,322 (29% of total)
TOTAL EMISSIONS 634,798 100%
Note that natural gas is by far a larger source of GHG emissions than electricity. Natural gas is predominately used for water and space heating in our buildings.
D. EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS
Setting interim targets is essential in order to gauge community progress on the road to 80 percent by 2050. In fact, 10 -15 years is about the longest timeframe over which defensible assumptions can be made about the impact on future emissions of things like technological change, future growth in population and housing, and future local, state, and federal legislation.
This plan focuses on actions our community can and should implement between now and 2020, but in the context of promoting the types of innovative approaches that will be necessary to achieve the ultimate 2050 target.
The 2020 target is a 33% reduction below 2000 emissions levels, or about a 2 percent annual reduction in GHG emissions.
Based on forecasted emissions levels, a 33% reduction below 2000 levels equates to an annual GHG reduction of nearly 207,300 tons by the year 2020. The tonnage of GHG emissions associated with the interim 2020 target is an esimate based on projected growth and as such should be adjusted depending on any unexpected increase or decrease of Berkeley's population or significant changes in energy-intensive commercial and manufacturing activity.
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